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DEP and Climate Change Advisory Committee Seeking Public Comments on Impact Assessment Report

By jimw ⋅ May 3, 2009 ⋅  Email this post ⋅  Print this post ⋅ Post a comment

Tags: advisory committee, climate change, DEP, Pennsylvania

As you are aware, GVF Transportation has formed a Climate Change Task Force. At the TMA Annual Spring Meeting, which was held on April 24th in Harrisburg , Chris Trostle, PA DEP, presented on the Climate Change Advisory Committee update. One piece of information I wanted to share with everyone was the Impact Assessment Report, which presents an assessment of the consequences of projected global climate change for Pennsylvania , that the PA DEP released in March 2009. This assessment was sponsored by the PA DEP which, pursuant to the PA Climate Change Act, Act 70 of 2008, is required to develop a report on the potential impacts of global climate change on PA’s climate, human health, the economy and the management of economic risk, forests, wildlife, fisheries, recreation, agriculture and tourism.

DEP, along with the Climate Change Advisory Committee (CCAC), is seeking public comments until May 18, 2009 that specifically relates to the work plans and other work products that are currently under consideration or should be under consideration. These comments should reflect recommendations and/or suggestions specific to the work of the subcommittees and the full CCAC.

If you are interested in reviewing the Impact Assessment Report, as well as additional revelant information, it can be found on DEP’s website or by clicking on the link below:

http://www.depweb.state.pa.us/energy/cwp/view.asp?a=1532&q=539829&energyNav=|38711|

Public comments on the PA Climate Impact Assessment will be taken until May 18, see email below.

http://www.depweb.state.pa.us/energy/lib/energy/docs/climatechangeadvcom/general_information/climate_impacts_assessment_draft_(040709).pdf

The following is a brief excerpt from p4 of the 13 page executive summary (9 subsections)… GCM = Global Climate Models.

The credible simulation of Pennsylvania’s past climate mean that GCM projections for the region can provide useful information for the impacts of projected climate change. The spread in individual GCM results provides a rough estimate of the GCM error. Two plausible IPCC global emissions scenarios are used for our analysis of Pennsylvania’s climate future. One scenario assumes continued growth in global emissions throughout the 21st century. This “high” emission scenario is the A2 of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The second, lower emissions scenario, assumes global emission’s growth is moderated to the middle of the 21st century and declines thereafter. This scenario is the IPCC SRES B1 scenario. Our main findings for the projected climate of the Commonwealth are:

• It is very likely that Pennsylvania will warm throughout the 21st century; not a single GCM simulates cooling under two different emissions scenarios.
• It is likely that annual precipitation will increase in Pennsylvania and very likely that winter precipitation will increase.
• Projected climate change for the Commonwealth is independent of emissions scenario over the next 20 years and becomes substantially dependent on emissions scenario by late century.
• By the end of the century, the median projected warming according to the A2 scenario is almost 4º C (7º F), which is nearly twice that of the B1 scenario.
• By late century, the median B1 and A2 annual precipitation projections are 6 and10%, respectively. Corresponding winter projections are 8 and 15%.
• Warming will lead to a longer growing season, with median B1 and A2 projections of 3 and 5 weeks lengthening, respectively, by late century. Corresponding frost day decreases are 4 and 6 weeks.
• It is likely that Pennsylvania’s precipitation climate will become more extreme in the future, with longer dry periods and greater intensity of precipitation.
• There is substantial uncertainty in projections of future tropical and extratropical cyclones for Pennsylvania. Current research suggests fewer storms but with increases in intensity.

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